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Jun Gao
Jun Gao

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Oct 4, 2021

Thinking notes on renovating email

Gist.ai can help Index the contents better. Google can be done in an email-way, (assume you have infinite information processing abilities) You will see a list of websites, ranked by their updated time (which will be a huge list, and updating like crazy) You can search some key words, and…

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Sep 20, 2021

Learnings from my good friend

1/ podcast 80000 hours: build career with a positive social impact Making sense with Sam Harris 2/ books originals by adam grant multipliers 3/ data projects learn from datakind 4/ advice on developing on leadership Internal: start a proposal & communication for stakeholders, and then take it to your manager start a group organizing people to discuss and work on something External:

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Sep 19, 2021

Thinking on Upstart

Interesting article. Very detailed research. Looking at the numbers now: upstart had a boost in 2021 in revenue(>10x) and stock: https://ir.upstart.com/static-files/0281f9ee-44c6-47e3-8136-32295b007347 I don't think this boost predictable. But I found this article very reasonable. Wonder what factor do we miss here? I guess we might underestimate the growth of upstart by a few factors: 1/ boost in personal loans: (personal hardship due to covid, lo interest): https://www.supermoney.com/studies/personal-loans-industry-study/

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Sep 14, 2021

About Dropbox

it is interesting to continue watching Dropbox and its financial statementsfor the past year and here is what I learned: 1/ revenue increasing 13.5%, cost around the same. revenue in 2021H1 is 135 million. (market cap is around 12 billion) 2/ The revenue growth can be decomposed into: paid user growth around 7.8%, ARPU around 7%. This is different from what we learned a year ago. Half of the revenue comes from ARPU growth. (back then we learned from Ravi that revenue is driven by # of paid users) 3/ I have cleared out my position, since I think the price has arrived at the level appropriate for next 2 years.

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Feb 7, 2021

Why can Time Series be useful in Internet industry?

Argument: Time series can be very useful in Internet Industry? As usual, we will list all the opposing arguments: 1/ Time series is a very narrow area(only for time series) 2/ Real time series forecast/detection problems, can only be solved based on a case-by-case manner 3/ Time series analysis was popular in Academia in 90’s. It becomes much less popular since then, especially comparing to CV and NLP. Also time series anlaysis frequentists lost the debate the Bayesianists.

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Jan 21, 2021

人为什么应该勤奋地工作

人应该勤奋地工作。这是我的观点 如果我不能够比全世界最聪明,最有能力,罪有资格反驳这个观点的人更能够正否自己,那我就不配拥有这个观点。 正方: 勤奋地工作能在其他条件相同的情况下,把工作做得更好,更容易获得更高的酬劳和更广泛的认可。(勤奋地工作)更容易让本人对工作认识得到提升,在相同时间内获得更深的认识,触发更深的思考。勤奋地工作能让人获得满足感,成就感,避免了浪费时间和沉溺于娱乐的空虚感。勤奋地工作更容易让自己产生事业的认同感,更容易找到人生的意义。 反方: 勤奋地工作,意义不明,容易造成别人的误解(例如让人误以为鼓励重复性工作)。勤奋地工作,让人着眼于工作本身,而忘记资本的积累。勤奋地工作,这种说法容易被人利用,被曲解为勤奋地打工,从而加速被榨取价值。(聪明的人会说)勤奋工作的边际效益是递减的,一个人能干两个人的活,辛苦程度指数上升,但(在大多数安排不好的情况下)只能得到至多两份报酬。勤奋工作会侵占自己的休息时间,反而降低工作质量。很多获得巨大成就的人也没有勤奋工作,相反,勤奋工作会降低他们的成就(比如爱因斯坦,休斯)。

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Aug 13, 2020

Again very good article on investing, especially on apple.

Apple Earnings Surge Behind Stimulus and Remote Work Apple Inc. showed the technology industry's resilience amid the pandemic, reporting a better-than-expected 11% increase…www.wsj.com Again very good article on investing, especially on apple. It is never waste of time to review this article https://finance.sina.cn/2020-03-19/detail-iimxyqwa1788302.d.html

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Aug 13, 2020

Why Buffet buys BAC(bank of America)?

连买三周!巴菲特21亿美元抄底,美国银行为何受青睐 伯克希尔·哈撒韦最新提交给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)文件显示,该公司在7月31日至8月4日期间买入1360万股美银股票,耗资近3.1亿美元。事实上,自7月20日以来,伯克希尔几乎每天都在增持美银。相关文件显示,伯克希尔在7月20日至22日…www.yicai.com 德美利证券(TD Ameritrade)首席市场策略师基纳汉(JJ Kinahan)在接受第一财经记者采访时表示,未来的经济复苏可能会经历一系列的起伏,这对于银行业而言是挑战。从近期的市场看,股市受到谨慎乐观情绪的推动,而债市也受到了资金青睐,也就是说许多人在买入股票的同时通过债券进行对冲,显示出避险需求依然高涨。 对于银行股而言,零利率、坏账在内的逆风短期内可能持续存在。基纳汉告诉第一财经记者,只要不出现负利率的情况,未来业绩进一步恶化可能性不大,因为活跃的市场保证了交易收入,美联储信贷工具所发放的贷款对金融机构而言也是保障。

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Jul 26, 2020

CUSUM Detector

1/how we can get this formula https://blog.csdn.net/daimaxiaoxin/article/details/83832759?ops_request_misc=%257B%2522request%255Fid%2522%253A%2522159574541919726869050493%2522%252C%2522scm%2522%253A%252220140713.130102334..%2522%257D&request_id=159574541919726869050493&biz_id=0&utm_medium=distribute.pc_search_result.none-task-blog-2~all~first_rank_ecpm_v3~pc_rank_v2-3-83832759.first_rank_ecpm_v3_pc_rank_v2&utm_term=cusum&spm=1018.2118.3001.4187

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Jun 25, 2020

Stock Trading Opportunities

Short-term LYFT: 30-min level, 5-min level, in both I do see opportunities of entering. Similar conclusion for UBER. UBER’s R 2 min is even better than Lift. DAL: wait for a bit longer, until it is below 26.60. MGM: 60 min level looks good to me. Long-term BRK: wait a bit longer below 176.05 AAPL: still rising, forget about it

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Jun Gao

Jun Gao

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