Jun Gao

1/ podcast

80000 hours: build career with a positive social impact

Making sense with Sam Harris

2/ books

originals by adam grant

multipliers

3/ data projects

learn from datakind

4/ advice on developing on leadership

Internal:

start a proposal & communication for stakeholders, and then take it to your manager

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it is interesting to continue watching Dropbox and its financial statementsfor the past year and here is what I learned:

1/ revenue increasing 13.5%, cost around the same. revenue in 2021H1 is 135 million. (market cap is around 12 billion)
2/ The revenue growth can be decomposed into: paid user growth around 7.8%, ARPU around 7%.
This is different from what we learned a year ago. Half of the revenue comes from ARPU growth. (back then we learned from Ravi that revenue is driven by # of paid users)
3/ I have cleared out my position, since I think the price has arrived at the level appropriate for next 2 years.

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Argument: Time series can be very useful in Internet Industry?

As usual, we will list all the opposing arguments:

1/ Time series is a very narrow area(only for time series)

2/ Real time series forecast/detection problems, can only be solved based on a case-by-case manner

3/ Time series analysis was popular in Academia in 90’s. It becomes much less popular since then, especially comparing to CV and NLP. Also time series anlaysis frequentists lost the debate the Bayesianists.

4/ (Traditional) time series analysis is based on strong assumptions like: stationarity.

5/ Time series analysis methods like causality is not so useful.

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人应该勤奋地工作。这是我的观点

如果我不能够比全世界最聪明,最有能力,罪有资格反驳这个观点的人更能够正否自己,那我就不配拥有这个观点。

正方:

勤奋地工作能在其他条件相同的情况下,把工作做得更好,更容易获得更高的酬劳和更广泛的认可。(勤奋地工作)更容易让本人对工作认识得到提升,在相同时间内获得更深的认识,触发更深的思考。勤奋地工作能让人获得满足感,成就感,避免了浪费时间和沉溺于娱乐的空虚感。勤奋地工作更容易让自己产生事业的认同感,更容易找到人生的意义。

反方:

勤奋地工作,意义不明,容易造成别人的误解(例如让人误以为鼓励重复性工作)。勤奋地工作,让人着眼于工作本身,而忘记资本的积累。勤奋地工作,这种说法容易被人利用,被曲解为勤奋地打工,从而加速被榨取价值。(聪明的人会说)勤奋工作的边际效益是递减的,一个人能干两个人的活,辛苦程度指数上升,但(在大多数安排不好的情况下)只能得到至多两份报酬。勤奋工作会侵占自己的休息时间,反而降低工作质量。很多获得巨大成就的人也没有勤奋工作,相反,勤奋工作会降低他们的成就(比如爱因斯坦,休斯)。

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