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1/ podcast

80000 hours: build career with a positive social impact

Making sense with Sam Harris

2/ books

originals by adam grant

multipliers

3/ data projects

learn from datakind

4/ advice on developing on leadership

Internal:

start a proposal & communication for stakeholders, and then take it to your manager

start a group organizing people to discuss and work on something

External:


Interesting article. Very detailed research.Looking at the numbers now: upstart had a boost in 2021 in revenue(>10x) and stock: https://ir.upstart.com/static-files/0281f9ee-44c6-47e3-8136-32295b007347I don't think this boost predictable. But I found this article very reasonable. Wonder what factor do we miss here?I guess we might underestimate the growth of upstart by a few factors:1/ boost in personal loans: (personal hardship due to covid, lo interest): https://www.supermoney.com/studies/personal-loans-industry-study/2/ upstart marketing spend starts to matter

it is interesting to continue watching Dropbox and its financial statementsfor the past year and here is what I learned:

1/ revenue increasing 13.5%, cost around the same. revenue in 2021H1 is 135 million. (market cap is around 12 billion)
2/ The revenue growth can be decomposed into: paid user growth around 7.8%, ARPU around 7%.
This is different from what we learned a year ago. Half of the revenue comes from ARPU growth. (back then we learned from Ravi that revenue is driven by # of paid users)
3/ I have cleared out my position, since I think the price has arrived at the level appropriate for next 2 years.


Argument: Time series can be very useful in Internet Industry?

As usual, we will list all the opposing arguments:

1/ Time series is a very narrow area(only for time series)

2/ Real time series forecast/detection problems, can only be solved based on a case-by-case manner

3/ Time series analysis was popular in Academia in 90’s. It becomes much less popular since then, especially comparing to CV and NLP. Also time series anlaysis frequentists lost the debate the Bayesianists.

4/ (Traditional) time series analysis is based on strong assumptions like: stationarity.

5/ Time series analysis methods like causality is not so useful.


人应该勤奋地工作。这是我的观点

如果我不能够比全世界最聪明,最有能力,罪有资格反驳这个观点的人更能够正否自己,那我就不配拥有这个观点。

正方:

勤奋地工作能在其他条件相同的情况下,把工作做得更好,更容易获得更高的酬劳和更广泛的认可。(勤奋地工作)更容易让本人对工作认识得到提升,在相同时间内获得更深的认识,触发更深的思考。勤奋地工作能让人获得满足感,成就感,避免了浪费时间和沉溺于娱乐的空虚感。勤奋地工作更容易让自己产生事业的认同感,更容易找到人生的意义。

反方:

勤奋地工作,意义不明,容易造成别人的误解(例如让人误以为鼓励重复性工作)。勤奋地工作,让人着眼于工作本身,而忘记资本的积累。勤奋地工作,这种说法容易被人利用,被曲解为勤奋地打工,从而加速被榨取价值。(聪明的人会说)勤奋工作的边际效益是递减的,一个人能干两个人的活,辛苦程度指数上升,但(在大多数安排不好的情况下)只能得到至多两份报酬。勤奋工作会侵占自己的休息时间,反而降低工作质量。很多获得巨大成就的人也没有勤奋工作,相反,勤奋工作会降低他们的成就(比如爱因斯坦,休斯)。


德美利证券(TD Ameritrade)首席市场策略师基纳汉(JJ Kinahan)在接受第一财经记者采访时表示,未来的经济复苏可能会经历一系列的起伏,这对于银行业而言是挑战。从近期的市场看,股市受到谨慎乐观情绪的推动,而债市也受到了资金青睐,也就是说许多人在买入股票的同时通过债券进行对冲,显示出避险需求依然高涨。

对于银行股而言,零利率、坏账在内的逆风短期内可能持续存在。基纳汉告诉第一财经记者,只要不出现负利率的情况,未来业绩进一步恶化可能性不大,因为活跃的市场保证了交易收入,美联储信贷工具所发放的贷款对金融机构而言也是保障。

相较而言,美国银行如今具有一定竞争优势,比如二季度该行营收与每股收益均超过市场预期,凸显其经营的稳健性,此外美国银行二季度末存款增加1350亿美元,贷款环比下降520亿美元,资本充足率达到11.6%,远高于监管要求的9.5%,因此有更多空间应对经济不确定性冲击。

陈凯丰向第一财经记者分析道,伯克希尔增持行为反映的是巴菲特对于高现金流企业的偏好,现阶段各大行整体财务状况乏善可陈,富国银行还陷入丑闻危机,可供的选择并不多。

值得一提的是,在过去的五年里,美国银行在控制支出方面做了许多工作,特别是通过数字银行和移动应用程序的升级,该行网上零售银行的活跃度稳步上升。陈凯丰告诉记者,作为美国金融业中科技转型最好的银行之一,这可能是伯克希尔大幅加仓的主要因素。

美银二季报显示,其网上开户数比上一季度增长了20%;美林财富管理客户的数字签约量同比增长100%;数字支票存款同比增长39%,增速超过去年同期的25%;新增移动支票存款用户100万户;在过去的12个月里,有300万的新增Zelle用户通过美银完成转账业务,资金规模同比扩大2倍。科技转型的成功不仅提升了交易便利性,也可能让美银更受到新一代投资者的认可。

机构也开始看好银行股后市表现,富国银行分析师梅奥(Mike Mayo)表示,伯克希尔近期抄底美国银行股票的决策是正确的,银行股在未来18到24个月内有可能增长50%,投资者对于银行帮助经济企稳回升的预期准备不足。

第一财经记者注意到,今年4月,里士满联储批准伯克希尔在美银的持股比例可以突破10%的上限,最高可达24.9%。如果还想继续增持,伯克希尔需要注册银行控股公司牌照(bank holding company)。因此,未来伯克希尔的增持脚步很可能还将继续。那么,“股神”重新入场会是美股新一轮行情的信号吗?


Short-term

LYFT: 30-min level, 5-min level, in both I do see opportunities of entering.

Similar conclusion for UBER. UBER’s R 2 min is even better than Lift.

DAL: wait for a bit longer, until it is below 26.60.

MGM: 60 min level looks good to me.

Long-term

BRK: wait a bit longer below 176.05

AAPL: still rising, forget about it

Jun Gao

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